An important goal of modern resource modeling is accurate and precise assessments of uncertainty for production volumes relevant for technical and economic decision making. Volumes of relevance often relate to weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual production. These volumes are large and, for the most part, short scale high-frequency variations cancel out. This explains why simulated realizations from a fixed modeling workflow with fixed parameters often understate uncertainty. Careful consideration of large scale geological uncertainty is required to provide realistic asessements of production uncertainty. There are alternatives to incorporate such larger scale uncertainty.
October 9, 2020
resources simulation estimation trends gmm blog
A trend in geostatistics could be a general tendency in the direction industry is taking, such as towards automation. A trend in geostatistics is also a non-stationary or locally-varying mean in a regionalized variable, particularly for a continuous variable. This kind of trend is common and must be considered in probabilistic resource modeling; otherwise, high values are smeared into volumes they do not belong and low values dilute high valued volumes. Two questions arise: (1) how to model the trend? and (2) how to model with a trend?
June 30, 2020